Mid-July 2025 – The summer heat is in full swing, vacation plans are in motion, and tax season feels like a distant memory. However, for a distinct group of Americans, a financial surprise might still be on the way.
Believe it or not, the IRS refund machine isn’t shut down for the season, and a perfect storm of delays, unclaimed cash, and backlogs means that a wave of tax refunds could land in mailboxes and bank accounts just as July hits its peak.
Who’s Likely Waiting for a Refund?
While most early filers have received their refunds months ago, some taxpayers – particularly those who filed on paper – are now in the midst of waiting for their tax windfalls.
If you’re someone who mailed in their return rather than filing electronically, you might still be in the IRS’s mid-summer processing window. And for those who may have forgotten about unclaimed cash, now could be the time for a nice surprise.
Paper Filers: The Mid-Summer Waiting Game
If you mailed your tax return, particularly between May 16th and May 31st, 2025, you are likely in line to receive your refund between July 11th and July 25th. This processing window falls in the second half of July.
But why the delay? It’s all about manual entry. The IRS has to review each paper return by hand, as opposed to the speed of digital submissions. This process can be slow and error-prone, which is why it takes time.
Why the Delay?
A simple math mistake, missing signature, or a high volume of returns can push your refund even later than expected. If you mailed your return and haven’t received it by July 25th, it’s time to take action. Use the IRS “Where’s My Refund?” tool or reach out to the IRS directly to check your status. While patience is important, the system is still processing, so it’s worth checking in.
Unclaimed 2021 Refunds: A Forgotten Opportunity
Here’s something even more unexpected: Over 1.1 million people nationwide still have refunds from tax year 2021 that have not been claimed. These refunds have been left unclaimed, like forgotten safety deposit boxes.
The deadline to claim these 2021 refunds was April 15, 2025, and thousands rushed to beat the cutoff. Now, the IRS is processing these last-minute claims, which takes time, especially when extra checks are needed—such as income verification or claims for credits like the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC).
For those who scrambled to claim their 2021 refunds in April, July could be the month when that payment finally arrives. It’s the final bureaucratic hurdle from the pandemic era that is only now reaching its conclusion.
IRS Verification and Additional Checks
If your return was flagged for additional verification—such as identity checks or mismatched information—your refund could have been delayed significantly. The IRS sometimes needs to confirm things like EITC or Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) eligibility.
This kind of verification can turn a standard 21-day refund into a weeks-long or months-long wait. If your return was caught in one of these checks, July could be the month when everything clears up.
State Refunds: Is It Really from the IRS?
Before you assume a deposit is from the IRS, make sure to check the details carefully. Many states are issuing their own checks in July 2025. For example, New York is distributing inflation relief checks, and California may be issuing middle-class tax refunds or gas stimulus funds.
Confusing state refunds with federal refunds is easy, especially if you see a deposit around the same time you expect your tax refund. However, state payments have entirely different rules and purposes, so be sure to verify your bank statement’s descriptor.
Mistaking a state payment for a federal refund could lead to false hope or, worse, spending money you thought was extra when it’s already counted on for bills.
